I have a lot of thoughts on investing I want to share with you guys. As you may know, I prefer to write long posts, and none of these individual thoughts take a long time to describe. So I’ve decided to group these thoughts together into the second, monthly Random Thoughts on Investing – September 2011. You may or may not agree with my thoughts, but that’s ok. It’s always good to read about others’ opinions. In the comments section, I hope to read your opinions too about my thoughts.
In a modern, global economy where making purchasing decisions is as simple as getting cheap insurance quotes online, the financial state of affairs for the last several years has proven difficult for most. Yet, before the mess of the last financial crisis has even begun to pick up the pieces, the economy threatens to buckle once again. So is it time to panic that we’re on the verge of another financial meltdown?
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, projected employment will only increase 10.1% by 2018. This is not enough to keep up with the current rate of population growth, much less make a dent in the unemployment numbers that remain stubbornly stagnant at over 9%.
Investing in bull markets is simple. Just buy and hold. Anyone can do that. But investing in a bear market is tough. Here are 9 rules that will help you weather the crash, not necessarily unscathed, but in a much better condition than many other investors.
Hey there everyone! Not only am I having a stock picking contest this month, but I’m also giving away a $25 Amazon.com gift card!
So what do I love about October? Halloween of course! Also, the weather is beautiful this time of the year in China. Unfortunately, I’m not going back for a visit this year. Oh well. Maybe next year.
And the contest begins! Below are the contestants, and the stock they picked.
- Kay Lynn @ Bucksome Boomer: Apple, Inc – AAPL
- Jerry Kelly: Apache Corporation: APA
- John Gerusi: AT&T – T
- Sinclair89: Honeywell – HON
- Alex Kwon: Wal-Mart – WMT
- Funancials: Dollar General – DG
- Adam Mucin: Dollar Tree – DLTR
Hey everyone! This is the first stock picking contest I’m having on Investorz Blog.
Here’s how the contest works.
- Anyone can enter.
- Contestants have 7 days to enter this contest and choose which stock they think will perform the best. That means, you have from today (October 15, 2011) to October 21, 2011 at midnight EST to enter this contest.
- After the contest entrance deadline, no new contestants will be allowed. The stock that contestants pick must be on the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- You may not pick more than one stock. Anyone that attempts to enter this contest under more than one name will be deleted.
- If you would like to participate in this contest, please comment below in the comments section. Please include the name of the stock that you picked and its ticker symbol.
In the history of the financial markets, we have experience possibly hundreds of bubbles, from the tulip bubble all the way to the recent Web 2.0 bubble. The question is, how to you spot the top of the bubble, and get out before it’s too late? Truth is, it’s impossible to catch the top. Near the end of a bubble investors are in a maniac demeanor, hence it’s impossible to predict how long and how far the bubble can keep going. Just because the markets are in a bubble doesn’t mean they’re anywhere near the top of the bubble. However, here are some FUNDAMENTAL signs to watch out for.
When we hear news about the economic crisis and jobs being cut, we usually think of burly manufacturing men standing in the unemployment lines. Most don’t think of skilled professionals having too hard of a time getting back on their feet during times of economic duress. Surprisingly, one of the industries losing jobs at an astonishing rate is the public school system. With all of the talk of needing more educated students, taxpayers aren’t willing to shill out the extra cash for teachers to keep their jobs. Here are some reasons why investing in a teaching degree may be a bad idea:
In an upcoming post, I’ll explain that understanding market sentiment and the psychology of other investors in the market is far more useful than technical or fundamental analysis in a bear market. Here’s a wonderful chart of investor sentiment during a bear market. Look below to the right.
In this post, I will detail out exactly what each of these market stages are, and how investors are feeling (what the sentiment is) during each of these market stages. Through understanding psychology, one can predict how other investors will react to certain market events (because human psychology is the one thing that never changes, unless we stop being human).
At this stage, many investors are feeling good about themselves and the markets. It’s been a while since the markets touched bottom, and a lot of people have forgotten that equities were once deemed as “dead”. The public begins to buy (albeit not too much, afraid that stocks will fall), believing the propaganda from the main stream media proclaiming that stocks will go higher, Higher, HIGHER! A few market analysts are calling a bubble, the general atmosphere amongst investors is optimism. The market data is all good.
This is when things really start to roll. Good times are in, and the public becomes accustomed to buying ever increasing stocks. Most investors are buying with both hands now, believing that stocks have yet to double and triple and quadruple. In other words, bubble on! Risk on! A few of the smart investors and hedge fund managers, contrarian to popular belief, believe that it’s now time to short equities and pop the bubble. But of course, no one listens to them, because no one wants to be a disciple of bad news. Market data, of course, comes in with corporate earnings report consistently beating the previous ones.
My friend John Tate over at johntate.weebly.com digitized the book When Genius Failed. He agreed to allow me to sponsor his efforts (for $80), and in return, I get to share this online books with my blog readers, for free! Here is a summary of the book. Alternatively, go to the bottom of this post to read the digital version of this book right now, for free.
Another month has passed. Wow. That was fast. This has been somewhat of a crazy month for my investments (it’s September, the markets come to life again!), hence aside from writing more posts, I didn’t really get the chance to work on anything else related to blogging such as SEO or design. That’s why I hired a few freelancers on freelance.com to create a new logo and work on SEO for me.
As you can see, my traffic fell over a cliff from last month’s, but it’s still up there!
What’s new about Investorz’ Blog.
We got a new WordPress Theme! I really like my old one, because the design was really decent, but more so it was really easy to use. If you miss the old design, I captured a screen shot of it before I switched to the new theme. Click here. The new theme is Standard, and what I like about it is that there’s more customization choices, but the design that comes prepackaged is really nice and easy to use. There are options to customize Standard, but I’ll probably hire a professional to do that for me in the future.